There is no doubt that the Trump administration will take a very different antitrust posture on oil & gas M&A. A new Republican chair of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is expected to herald a return to more traditional antitrust enforcement principles and reduce unpredictability regarding M&A outcomes in the sector.

The second Trump administration and Republican-controlled Congress will likely repeal some or all of the IRA related to energy tax credits and reallocate funds toward new tax cuts. While this aligns with broader Republican priorities, some party members, especially those from red-leaning districts where the IRA has spurred job growth and attracted multibillion-dollar investments, may resist its complete repeal. Likewise, we anticipate the repeal of many of the Environmental Protection Agency’s new rules and do not yet know what will come in their place.

On the deal side, we expect transaction volumes to increase as a wave of post-consolidation asset sales and portfolio diversification drives activity. Private equity exits will gather pace and sponsors will snap up strategic divestments, while joint ventures will be a growing feature of the industry.

There is much to navigate as the prevailing political mood changes. As oil & gas demand continues to grow globally, we do not expect the largest oil & gas companies to change course on their efforts to reduce their carbon footprints and invest in new energy technologies, so there will be much to watch in the months and years ahead.